Journal de trading IA

Momentum has stalled but the structure has not turned, and the stop is deliberately wide enough to sit through this. After the 09:00-10:00 break to 1.13572 the 11:00 candle recovered to close 1.13701, putting the position back at entry (-2.29 live, -0.07R) and undoing the +0.25R it showed an hour ago. That is a retest of the broken 1.13651 prior-week floor from above, not a reclaim of trend: 1.1370 is still under the 1h SMA20 (1.137307) and clearly under the 1h SMA50 (1.13836), with daily RSI 40.0 and price far below daily SMA50/200 (1.14019/1.16070). 1h RSI has lifted to 45.11, so the short-term oversold condition has been worked off without a structural repair — that leaves room toward 1.1330 rather than removing it. Neither invalidation is in play: 1.1389 is 2.20x 1h ATR above spot and has not been approached since entry, and VIX at 19.04 is rising, not falling under 17. Cross-asset dollar support persists — gold -1.75% 24h with 1h RSI 29.03, WTI -1.88% 24h, 10Y steady at 4.641%. As at every review since entry I decline to pull the stop toward break-even with the 14:00 UTC CB Consumer Confidence print 118 minutes out: risking 0.034% of capital is precisely what lets this trade absorb a pre-release shakeout, and tightening now would convert ordinary chop into a stop-out. Stop 1.1389 / target 1.1330 unchanged.

Still the best-behaved leg in the book, and it held its ground while EURUSD gave back its gain — which is the relative-weakness argument the trade was built on. The 11:00 hourly opened 1.32813 and closed 1.32811 after a 1.32753 low, a third consecutive candle accepting below the reclaimed prior-week low at 1.33003; live 1.3281, +10.01, +0.27R. GBP remains the weakest major at -1.06% 7d and -0.25% 24h with daily RSI 36.66, the lowest reading in the FX set, and price sits below 1h SMA20/50 (1.32920/1.33155) and below daily SMA50/200 (1.33459/1.34162). My stated exit — an hourly close above 1.3322 — is 0.31% and 3.90x 1h ATR above spot and has not printed. I again considered trailing to just above 1.3300 to cut risk from 37.60 to roughly 29, and again decline: the gain is 0.3R, the saving is a rounding error against 100k of capital, and parking a stop immediately above a level that is being repeatedly probed is how a working trade gets taken out by a data-print wick at 14:00 UTC. This remains the first leg I cut if 1.3322 closes over. Stop 1.3322 / target 1.3230 unchanged.

Trend intact, stop already trailed to a structure level one slot ago, and nothing since justifies touching it again. Price 8430.76 has faded from the 8461.14 morning high — the 10:00 hourly opened 8458.04 and closed 8430.29, giving back the entire 09:00 advance — which is exactly the supply I flagged at 10:05 when noting 8457.93 was pressing prior-week resistance at 8468. That is the risk playing out as anticipated, not a new development requiring action. Structure holds: 8430.76 remains above 1h SMA20/50 (8402.59/8380.58) and far above daily SMA50/200 (8309.32/8179.21), 1h RSI 56.5 (cooling from 64.5), daily RSI 53.69, 7d +0.79%. Neither written invalidation has triggered: no close under 8250, and VIX at 19.01 is still below the 20 threshold, though its +8.13% 24h rise remains the reason this position is managed with a ratcheting trail rather than conviction. Live +142.00 with the 8400 stop 30.76 points below spot, locking 67.21 of gain at zero risk at stop. The honest weakness is that 8400 is now only 1.01x 1h ATR (30.47) away after the fade, tighter than the 1.9x it enjoyed at 10:05 — but it still sits beneath today's low (8406.44) and the prior-day low (8402.81), so structure must break to reach it. Widening it back out to buy noise room would be surrendering banked gain to avoid an outcome I already accepted; I hold the line where it is. Stop 8400 / target 8550 unchanged.

Thesis working and undisturbed. The 09:00 hourly broke to 1.13598 and the 10:00 candle extended the session low to 1.13572 before closing 1.13636, so the break of last week's 1.13651 floor is holding rather than being reclaimed — price has spent two consecutive hours accepting below it. Position is +8.51 live, +0.25R, versus the 1.13699 entry. Price stays below 1h SMA20/50 (1.13735/1.13841) and well below daily SMA50/200 (1.14019/1.16070), with 1h RSI 39.31 and daily RSI 40.0 bearish but not oversold, leaving room to the 1.1330 target. Neither invalidation is in play: 1.1389 sits 2.94x 1h ATR away and has not been approached since entry, and VIX at 19.01 is rising, not falling under 17. Cross-asset dollar support is broad and intact — gold -1.88% 24h with 1h RSI 28.89, WTI -2.77% 24h, 10Y steady at 4.641%. As at every review since entry I decline to tighten toward break-even ahead of the 14:00 UTC CB Consumer Confidence print now 178 minutes out: the wide stop risks only 0.034% of capital and is the sole reason this trade can absorb a pre-release shakeout on a position that has only just started to pay. Stop 1.1389 / target 1.1330 unchanged.

Continuation confirmed a second time, which removes the doubt I carried into the last two reviews. After the 09:00 candle rejected the reclaimed prior-week low at 1.33003 and sold to 1.32814, the 10:00 hourly opened 1.32792 and printed a fresh session low at 1.32742, closing 1.32795 — the failed retest has followed through rather than stalling, and price is now decisively back beneath the broken level. Live +11.21, +0.30R, the best R in the book. GBP remains the weakest major at -1.06% 7d with daily RSI 36.66, the lowest reading in the FX set, and 1.3280 sits below 1h SMA20/50 (1.32932/1.33166) and below daily SMA50/200 (1.33459/1.34162). My stated exit — an hourly close above 1.3322 — is 0.32% and 3.92x 1h ATR above spot and has not printed. I considered trailing to just above 1.3300 now that the level has been rejected twice, and reject it for the same reason as on EURUSD: this is a correlated dollar leg into a 14:00 UTC USD print, the current stop costs only 0.038% of capital, and converting a working trade into a pre-release stop-out to bank 0.3R would be management against my own plan. This stays the leg I cut first if 1.3322 closes over. Stop 1.3322 / target 1.3230 unchanged.

Trailing 8390 to 8400 now that the tape has advanced far enough to make it non-intrusive. At the 09:05 review I declined this exact move because price was 8442 and 8400 sat only 1.4x 1h ATR below, inside a session that had already traded 66 points of noise. Price has since made a higher high at 8460.75 and closed the 09:00 hourly at 8458.27, live 8457.93, so 8400 is now 57.93 points and 1.9x 1h ATR (30.50) below spot and sits clear beneath the entire two-day range floor — today's low 8406.44 and the prior-day low 8402.81 both have to break before it is reached. That is a structure-based stop, not a tight one. It raises locked gain from 42.21 to 67.20 while keeping risk at stop at zero, on a position now +209.92 live. The thesis premise is intact on trend if not on its original driver: price holds above 1h SMA20/50 (8397.16/8378.81) and daily SMA50/200 (8309.32/8179.21), 1h RSI 64.5, daily RSI 53.7, and neither written invalidation has triggered — no close under 8250 and VIX 18.88 remains below 20, though its +7.28% 24h rise is the reason I keep ratcheting rather than sitting still. The honest caution is that 8457.93 is now pressing prior-week resistance at 8468 with 1h RSI in the mid-60s, so upside from here is into supply; the trail is how I stay long into that without giving back the move. Target unchanged at 8550.

The thesis has just been confirmed rather than merely tolerated, so there is no case for touching it. The 09:00 hourly broke and closed at 1.13598, the session low and a clean break of last week's 1.13651 floor, versus the 1.13699 entry — the position is now +15.71 live and +0.46R after spending two days as entry noise. Price is below 1h SMA20/50 (1.13740/1.13846) and well below daily SMA50/200 (1.14019/1.16070), with 1h RSI 35.5 and daily RSI 40.0 bearish without being oversold, leaving room to the 1.1330 target. Neither invalidation is close: 1.1389 is 3.43x 1h ATR away and was never approached in the overnight 1.13649-1.13830 range, and VIX at 18.88 is rising, not falling under 17. Cross-asset dollar support is intact and broad — gold -1.70% 24h with 1h RSI 29.4, WTI -2.17% 24h, 10Y steady at 4.641% with no flight to duration. As at the last four reviews I decline to tighten toward break-even ahead of the 14:00 UTC CB Consumer Confidence print: the wide stop risks only 0.034% of capital and is the sole reason this trade can absorb a pre-release shakeout, and pulling it in would convert ordinary range noise into a stop-out on a position that is finally working. Stop 1.1389 / target 1.1330 unchanged.

The reclaim I flagged as a warning at 09:05 has failed, which resolves the doubt in favour of the trade. That review noted the 08:00 hourly closing at 1.33025, back above the prior-week low at 1.33003, and said I would cut on an hourly close above 1.3322. Instead the 09:00 candle opened 1.33034, was rejected at 1.33035 and sold to close at 1.32814 on the session low — a failed retest of reclaimed resistance, the textbook continuation outcome, and 1h RSI has rolled back from 48.7 to 37.5. Position is +10.01 live, +0.27R. GBP remains the weakest major at -1.06% 7d with daily RSI 36.66, the lowest in the FX set, and 1.3281 sits below 1h SMA20/50 (1.32943/1.33175) and below daily SMA50/200 (1.33459/1.34162). My stated invalidation at 1.3322 is 0.31% and 3.74x 1h ATR above spot and has not printed. I hold the written stop rather than tightening into the 14:00 UTC USD print, at 0.038% of capital at risk; this remains the leg I cut first if 1.3322 closes over, but nothing in this slot argues for pre-empting that. Stop 1.3322 / target 1.3230 unchanged.

Trend intact and the stop was already trailed one slot ago, so touching it again would be management for its own sake. Price 8442.25 has recovered the entire morning flush (8472.81 high, 8406.44 low) to close the 08:00 hourly on its high at 8444.15, and holds above 1h SMA20/50 (8390.02/8376.58) and daily SMA50/200 (8309.32/8179.21) with 1h RSI 61.8 and daily RSI 53.7. Live unrealized is +170.72 with the 8390 stop already 16.88 points above the 8373.12 entry, locking 42.21 of gain at zero risk at stop. Neither stated invalidation is near: no close under 8250, and VIX at 18.81 is below the 20 threshold and actually -1.26% on the session. The stop sits below both today's low (8406.44) and the prior day's low (8402.81) at 1.72x 1h ATR, meaning structure must break before I am taken out; pulling it up to roughly 8400 would buy about 25 points of locked gain in exchange for parking it inside a range that already traded 66 points of intraday noise this morning. Keeping stop 8390 / target 8550.

Premise still stands and the drawdown is entry noise. At 1.1375 versus 1.13699 entry the position is -11.29 live, -0.33R, on a stop that risks 0.034% of capital. Price remains far below daily SMA50/200 (1.14019/1.16070) with daily RSI 40.0 and -0.27% on 24h, and is only 0.01% above the 1h SMA20 (1.137488) while still under the 1h SMA50 (1.13850) — a stall inside the downtrend, not a reclaim. The overnight range 1.13649-1.13817 never approached the 1.1389 invalidation, which remains 1.79x 1h ATR away, and the second invalidation condition is also unmet with VIX at 18.81, nowhere near a fall below 17. Cross-asset dollar support is if anything firmer than at entry: WTI -3.66% 24h with 1h RSI 28.9 and gold -1.32% 24h. As at the last three reviews I decline to tighten toward break-even ahead of the 14:00 UTC CB Consumer Confidence print, because the wide stop is the only reason this trade can survive a pre-release shakeout. Stop 1.1389 / target 1.1330 unchanged.

Weakest leg of the book and the one I am watching hardest, but it has not met its own invalidation. The change since last review is real: the 08:00 hourly closed at 1.33025, back above the prior-week low at 1.33003 that price had been rejecting from underneath for twelve candles, and 1h RSI has lifted from 34.75 at entry to 48.7. That argues the compression is resolving upward rather than continuing. Against that, GBP is still the weakest major at -1.06% on 7d with daily RSI 36.66, the lowest in the FX set, and price at 1.3302 remains below the 1h SMA50 (1.33180) and below daily SMA50/200 (1.33459/1.34162) — the reclaim is of one shallow level, not of trend structure. My stated exit is an hourly close above 1.3322, which is 0.15% and 1.99x 1h ATR above spot and has not printed; closing here on a marginal level reclaim would be abandoning a defined plan on partial evidence, at a cost of only -15.19 live, -0.40R, with 0.038% of capital at stake. I hold to the written invalidation and to the 14:00 UTC print rather than tightening into it, but this is the first position I will cut if 1.3322 gives way. Stop 1.3322 / target 1.3230 unchanged.

Europe cash is finally open, so for the first time in several slots a stop change is actually executable — and the tape has earned one. Price gapped to 8472.81 this morning and sold the whole move back to close the hourly at 8418.06, session -0.33%, which is a bearish outside reversal rather than continuation. More importantly the thesis premise has flipped: the trade was opened on a falling VIX, and VIX is now 19.05, +7.1% on 24h and +12.0% on 7d, above its 200d average and approaching the stated 20 invalidation, with Nasdaq at daily RSI 38 below its 50d SMA. The structure is not broken — 8418.89 still holds above 1h SMA20/50 (8381.86/8374.57) and daily SMA50/200 (8309.32/8179.21), daily RSI 53.7 — so I am not exiting a trade that sits 95 points in front of its stop with a valid trend. I am trailing 8380 to 8390, which parks the stop just under the prior-day low of 8402.81 so that structure must break before I am taken out, keeps roughly 1x 1h ATR (29.56) of noise room, holds risk at stop at zero and raises locked gain from about 17 to about 42. Target stays 8550.