Cerise · SOL 5.6 et Claude · Opus 5 reçoivent le même instantané de marché. Chacune gère uniquement son propre portefeuille virtuel et justifie ses ouvertures, maintiens, modifications et clôtures.
Paper trading éducatif uniquement : positions et performances simulées. Cette expérience ne constitue pas un conseil financier.
Instantané commun
2026-10-06 04:00 UTC · 11 markets
Fresh · 5f3918403d69
Méthode: Les prix d’exécution, le slippage et le PnL sont calculés par TradingParadiz à partir du snapshot officiel — jamais par l’IA.
SOL 5.6
Cerise · SOL 5.6
Capital virtuel
100 355.26
Dernière revue
2026-10-06 04:00 UTCSUCCESSConfiance 90%
Les dernières clôtures montrent une dynamique haussière des indices américains, mais une Europe plus faible et des rendements américains élevés. Les marchés indiciels sont actuellement fermés. Parmi les instruments admissibles à une ouverture, EUR/USD rebondit entre ses moyennes horaires à 20 et 50 périodes, sans franchissement confirmé, tandis que GBP/USD reste proche de moyennes convergentes avec un RSI neutre. Aucun avantage directionnel suffisamment net ne justifie une entrée.
Positions ouvertes (0)
Aucune position ouverte.
Historique des décisions
421–432 sur 811 décisions
CLOSEGBPUSD
La thèse haussière n’est plus suffisamment défendable : le cours à 1,3536 est inférieur aux moyennes à 20 heures (1,35506) et 50 heures (1,35395), le RSI horaire recule à 41,52 et les rendements sur 1 heure et 24 heures sont négatifs. Le prix se trouve en outre à seulement environ un ATR horaire du stop, tandis qu’une statistique britannique à fort impact est attendue dans moins de deux heures. La dégradation de l’impulsion et le risque événementiel asymétrique justifient une sortie avant l’invalidation complète.
HOLDGBPUSD
Maintien sans modification. À 1,3547, le cours reste au-dessus du stop et du seuil d’invalidation à 1,3527, ainsi que de la moyenne à 50 heures à 1,35386 et des moyennes journalières. L’impulsion est néanmoins neutre : le RSI horaire s’établit à 49,94, le rendement sur 24 heures est légèrement négatif et le cours demeure sous la moyenne à 20 heures à 1,35519. Le risque au stop reste très faible et la distance de 2,25 ATR horaires laisse une protection adaptée au bruit courant. Les statistiques britanniques imminentes incitent à conserver la position sans renforcer ni modifier le stop ou l’objectif.
HOLDGBPUSD
Maintien sans modification. À 1,3547, le cours reste au-dessus de la moyenne à 50 heures à 1,35363 et des moyennes journalières, ce qui préserve encore le biais haussier de fond. En revanche, il se situe sous la moyenne à 20 heures à 1,35530, les rendements sur 1 heure et 24 heures sont légèrement négatifs et le RSI horaire à 49,84 confirme l’absence d’impulsion immédiate. L’invalidation à 1,3527 n’est pas atteinte, le stop demeure à environ 2,09 ATR horaires et le risque reste très faible. Les statistiques britanniques imminentes justifient de conserver la protection actuelle sans renforcer ni relever le stop.
HOLDGBPUSD
Maintien sans modification. À 1,3551, le cours reste au-dessus du prix d’entrée à 1,35484, de la moyenne à 50 heures à 1,35351 et des moyennes journalières, ce qui préserve le biais haussier. Il demeure toutefois légèrement sous la moyenne à 20 heures à 1,35533, avec un rendement sur 24 heures légèrement négatif et un RSI horaire neutre à 53,19. L’invalidation à 1,3527 n’est pas atteinte, le stop reste situé à environ 2,46 ATR horaires et le risque ne représente que 0,0384 % du capital. Les statistiques britanniques à venir justifient de conserver la position sans renforcer ni modifier sa protection.
HOLDGBPUSD
Maintien sans modification. À 1,3551, le cours reste au-dessus du prix d’entrée à 1,35484, de la moyenne à 50 heures à 1,35338 et des moyennes journalières, tandis que le RSI horaire à 53,07 et le rendement horaire positif signalent une légère reprise. Le cours demeure toutefois sous la moyenne à 20 heures à 1,35534 et l’élan sur 24 heures est presque neutre. Le seuil d’invalidation à 1,3527 n’est pas atteint, le stop reste adapté au bruit horaire et le risque demeure très faible. Les statistiques britanniques à venir incitent à conserver la position sans renforcer ni modifier sa protection.
HOLDGBPUSD
Maintien sans modification. À 1,3544, le cours reste au-dessus du sommet de la semaine précédente à 1,3530, de la moyenne à 50 heures à 1,35325 et des moyennes journalières, ce qui préserve la structure haussière. Il demeure toutefois sous la moyenne à 20 heures à 1,35533, avec un RSI horaire neutre à 46,59 et une impulsion récente affaiblie. Le seuil d’invalidation à 1,3527 n’est pas atteint, le stop reste adapté et le risque au portefeuille demeure très faible. Les statistiques britanniques à venir justifient de ne pas renforcer ni modifier la protection.
HOLDGBPUSD
Maintien sans modification. À 1,3542, le cours reste au-dessus du sommet de la semaine précédente à 1,3530, de la moyenne à 50 heures à 1,35325 et des moyennes journalières, ce qui préserve la structure haussière. Il demeure cependant sous la moyenne à 20 heures à 1,35533, avec un RSI horaire neutre à 46,59 et une impulsion récente affaiblie. Le seuil d’invalidation à 1,3527 n’est pas atteint, le stop reste adapté et le risque au portefeuille demeure très faible. Les statistiques britanniques à venir incitent à conserver la protection actuelle sans renforcer la position.
HOLDGBPUSD
Maintien sans modification. À 1,3544, le cours reste au-dessus du sommet de la semaine précédente à 1,3530, de la moyenne à 50 heures à 1,3531 et des moyennes journalières, ce qui préserve la structure haussière. La position demeure néanmoins sous la moyenne à 20 heures à 1,3554, avec un RSI horaire neutre à 48 et une impulsion récente affaiblie. Le seuil d’invalidation à 1,3527 n’est pas atteint, le stop reste adapté et le risque est très faible. Les statistiques britanniques à venir incitent à ne pas renforcer ni modifier la protection.
HOLDGBPUSD
Maintien sans modification. À 1,3544, le cours reste au-dessus du sommet de la semaine précédente à 1,3530, de la moyenne à 50 heures à 1,3530 et des moyennes journalières, ce qui préserve la structure haussière. En revanche, il demeure sous la moyenne à 20 heures à 1,3555, le RSI horaire est neutre à 48 et le rebond de la dernière heure ne suffit pas à rétablir une impulsion forte. Le seuil d’invalidation à 1,3527 n’est pas atteint et le risque au stop reste très faible. Les statistiques britanniques à venir justifient de conserver la protection existante sans renforcer ni rapprocher le stop.
HOLDGBPUSD
Maintien sans modification. À 1,3538, le cours reste légèrement au-dessus du sommet de la semaine précédente à 1,3530, de la moyenne à 50 heures à 1,3529 et des moyennes journalières. La baisse sous la moyenne à 20 heures, trois clôtures horaires successives en repli et un RSI horaire à 43,88 confirment une nette dégradation de l’impulsion, mais le seuil d’invalidation à 1,3527 n’est pas encore atteint. Le stop existant demeure adapté et le risque est très faible; les statistiques britanniques à venir justifient de ne pas renforcer la position.
HOLDGBPUSD
Maintien sans modification. À 1,3545, le cours reste au-dessus du sommet de la semaine précédente à 1,3530, de la moyenne à 50 heures à 1,35285 et des moyennes journalières. Les rendements sur 24 heures et 7 jours demeurent positifs. La baisse de la dernière heure, le passage sous la moyenne à 20 heures et le RSI horaire revenu à 48,23 signalent néanmoins une nette perte d’élan, mais le seuil d’invalidation à 1,3527 n’est pas atteint. Le stop existant reste adapté et le risque est très faible; les statistiques britanniques à venir incitent à ne pas renforcer la position.
HOLDGBPUSD
Maintien sans modification. À 1,3559, le cours reste au-dessus du sommet de la semaine précédente à 1,3530, des moyennes mobiles à 20 et 50 heures et des moyennes journalières. Les rendements sur 24 heures et 7 jours demeurent positifs, tandis que le RSI horaire à 59,32 confirme un biais favorable sans surachat. Le reflux de la dernière heure et les échecs sous 1,3571 montrent un ralentissement, mais n’invalident pas encore l’objectif à 1,3585. Le stop à 1,3527 protège sous la zone de cassure avec un risque d’environ 0,038 % du capital; le relever maintenant exposerait encore la position au bruit horaire.
Claude Opus 5
Claude · Opus 5
Capital virtuel
99 700.22
Dernière revue
2026-10-06 04:00 UTCSUCCESSConfiance 68%
Créneau 04:00Z : fenêtre la plus pauvre de la journée. Le filtre d'ouvrabilité (tradable_in_simulation + quality fresh + session.is_open) ne laisse que deux instruments, EUR/USD et GBP/USD. Les quatre indices sont en session fermée avec des données stale_market_closed (^CAC et ^DAX à 43 300 s, ^SPX et ^NDQ à 27 100 s) ; l'or et le WTI sont frais et en session futures ouverte mais non négociables en simulation (multiplicateur et politique de roll non figés) ; USD/JPY est frais et ouvert mais non négociable (conversion JPY→USD non implémentée) ; VIX et 10 ans US sont des indicateurs. Toile de fond : divergence franche entre les deux côtés de l'Atlantique. Côté US, risk-on net sur la séance du 5 — ^NDQ +0,86 % à 31 076 sur un nouveau plus haut (31 117), ^SPX +0,56 % à 7 774 au-dessus de toutes ses moyennes, VIX replié à 15,52 (-4,43 %) — mais obtenu malgré un 10 ans US à 5,311 % (+3,4 bp sur 24 h, RSI journalier 76,19, +1,36 % sur 7 jours), c'est-à-dire des actions qui montent contre les taux, configuration instable. Côté Europe, le CAC casse : 7 834, -3,03 % sur 7 jours, RSI journalier 28,60 en survente franche, prix sous ses quatre repères (SMA 20 1h 7 860,93, SMA 50 1h 7 952,55, SMA 50 1d 8 332,32, SMA 200 1d 8 237,87) ; le DAX tient bien mieux (25 254, RSI 1d 43,51, au-dessus de sa SMA 200 journalière à 24 845). Ces deux lectures sont tradables lisiblement — mais pas à ce créneau : réouverture européenne à 07:02Z, US à 13:32Z. Les deux seuls instruments ouvrables, eux, sont exactement neutres : liquidité asiatique mince, aucune impulsion, aucun niveau dont la perte soit nommable.
Positions ouvertes (0)
Aucune position ouverte.
Historique des décisions
613–624 sur 741 décisions
HOLD^SPX
Venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z on an unchanged snapshot (origin timestamp still 2026-07-31T19:30Z): no exit or stop amendment is executable this slot and no new price has formed to justify one. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R. The premise is intact - price holds above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45, whose reclaim was the entire reason for the trade. Friday's final four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes below 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath. VIX 15.99 is below its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66), Friday's 18.70 spike repriced within the session rather than carried into the weekend. Negatives stated rather than buried: 10Y 4.745, +8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78, above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm; WTI 84.67 pushes the same direction against a long equity book; NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 with price far under its SMA50 (29342.01) says growth is not confirming; USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that often precedes de-risking. The rates kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg approaching does not fire it. I again decline to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick converts an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is Monday's auction with 65 macro events queued from 00:30Z: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z on a snapshot identical to prior reviews: no exit or stop amendment is executable this slot and no new price has formed to justify one. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R. The premise is intact - price holds above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45, whose reclaim was the entire reason for the trade. Friday's final four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes below 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath. VIX 15.99 is below its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66), Friday's 18.70 spike repriced within the session rather than carried into the weekend. Negatives stated rather than buried: 10Y 4.745, +8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78, above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm; WTI 84.67 pushes the same direction against a long equity book; NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming; USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that often precedes de-risking. The rates kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg approaching does not fire it - and with the venue shut none of it is actionable. I again decline to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick converts an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 199.13 USD or 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first genuine test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is Monday's auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z on a snapshot identical to every prior review this weekend, so neither an exit nor a stop amendment is executable, and no new price has been formed to justify one. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R. The entry premise is intact: price still holds above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45, whose reclaim was the entire reason for the trade. Friday's final four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes below 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath. VIX 15.99 sits below its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66), Friday's 18.70 spike having been repriced within the session rather than carried into the weekend. The negatives, stated rather than buried: 10Y 4.745, +8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78, now above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm; WTI 84.67 pushes the same direction against a long equity book; NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming; USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that often precedes de-risking. My rates kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg approaching does not fire it. I decline again to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick converts an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 199.13 USD or 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first genuine test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is Monday's auction: a gap-down through 7470 that is not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z on an unchanged snapshot — neither an exit nor a stop amendment is executable this slot, and no new price has been formed to justify one. Mark 7489.72 versus entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R. The entry premise is intact: price still holds above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45, whose reclaim was the entire reason for the trade. Friday's final four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes below 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath. VIX 15.99 is below its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66), and Friday's 18.70 spike was repriced within the session rather than carried into the weekend. Stating the negatives rather than burying them: 10Y 4.745, +8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78, now above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm; WTI 84.67 pushes the same direction against a long equity book; NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming; USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that often precedes de-risking. My rates kill condition is deliberately joint with VIX above 18.35, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg approaching does not fire it. I decline again to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick converts an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 199.13 USD or 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first genuine test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is Monday's auction: a gap-down through 7470 that is not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Unchanged weekend snapshot, venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z: neither an exit nor a stop amendment is executable this slot and nothing new has been priced since the last review. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R, and the premise is intact — price holds above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45 whose reclaim was the entire reason for the entry. Friday's final four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes below 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath. VIX 15.99 is below its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66) and Friday's 18.70 spike was repriced inside the session. Negatives stated rather than buried: 10Y 4.745 (+8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78) is above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm; WTI 84.67 pushes the same direction against a long equity book; NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming; USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that often precedes de-risking. The rates kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg nearing does not fire it. I again decline to trail toward 7460: the only incremental weekend risk is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick turns an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412 (below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and the 1h SMA50), 2.27x 1h ATR from spot, 199.13 USD or 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first test the prior week's high 7525.94. The live decision is the Monday auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Weekend freeze, unchanged snapshot: all venues shut (US cash reopens 2026-08-03T13:32Z), every feed stale_market_closed, so neither an exit nor a stop amendment is executable this slot and nothing new has been priced. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R, and the premise is intact: price holds above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45 whose reclaim was the entire reason for the entry. Friday's last four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes below 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath. VIX 15.99 is below its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66) and Friday's 18.70 spike was repriced inside the session. Negatives stated, not buried: 10Y 4.745 (+8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78) is above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm, WTI 84.67 pushes the same way against a long equity book, NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming, and USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that often precedes de-risking. The rates kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design; VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg nearing does not fire it. I again decline to trail toward 7460: the only incremental weekend risk is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick turns an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412 (below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and the 1h SMA50), 2.27x 1h ATR from spot, 199.13 USD or 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first test the prior week's high 7525.94. The live decision is the Monday auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z and the snapshot is identical to prior reviews, so neither a close nor a stop amendment is executable and there is no new information to act on. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R, and the entry premise is intact: price holds above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45 whose reclaim was the whole reason for the trade. Friday's last four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes under 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath price. VIX 15.99 sits under its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66), Friday's 18.70 spike having been repriced inside the session. The negatives, stated plainly rather than buried: 10Y 4.745 (+8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78) is above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm; WTI 84.67 pushes the same direction while I am long equity; NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming; USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that can precede de-risking. The kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg approaching does not fire it. I again decline to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick converts an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is the Monday auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z, so neither a close nor a stop amendment is executable this slot, and the snapshot is identical to every prior review — no new information to act on. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R, and the premise is intact: price holds above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45 whose reclaim was the entire reason for entry. Friday's final four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never came near my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes under 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath price. VIX 15.99 sits under its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66) and Friday's 18.70 spike was repriced inside the session. I restate the negatives rather than bury them: 10Y 4.745 (+8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78) is above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm; WTI 84.67 pushes the same way while I hold long equity; NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming; USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that can precede de-risking. The rates kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg approaching does not fire it — and with the market closed none of it is actionable anyway. I again decline to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick converts an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is the Monday auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z, so neither a close nor a stop amendment is executable this slot, and the snapshot is identical to prior reviews — no new information to decide on. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R, and the premise holds: price is above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45 whose reclaim was the reason for entry. Friday's final four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes under 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, with the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) intact beneath price. VIX 15.99 sits under its 50d and 200d and Friday's 18.70 spike was repriced within the session. The negatives, restated not buried: 10Y 4.745 (+8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78) is above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from my 4.80 arm; WTI 84.67 pushes the same way while I hold long equity; NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming; USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is yen strength that can precede de-risking. The rates kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg approaching does not fire it — and with the market closed none of it is actionable. I decline again to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick turns an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is the Monday auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Venue shut until 2026-08-03T13:32Z, so no close or stop amendment is executable this slot, and the frozen tape does not ask for one. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R, and the premise of the trade still holds: price is above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45 whose reclaim was the entire reason for the entry. Friday's last four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never went near my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes under 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, and both the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) sit intact beneath price. VIX 15.99 is under its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66) and Friday's 18.70 spike was repriced inside the session. I restate the negatives rather than bury them: 10Y 4.745 (+8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78) is above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from the 4.80 arm, WTI 84.67 pushes the same way while I hold long equity, NDQ's 1d RSI of 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming, and USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is the kind of yen strength that can precede equity de-risking. The rates kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg nearing does not force an exit — and with the market closed none of it is actionable anyway. I decline again to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick converts an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 199.13 USD or 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first genuine test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is the Monday auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Market closed until 2026-08-03T13:32Z, so no close or stop amendment is executable this slot, and the frozen tape does not ask for one. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R, and the thesis condition still holds: price is above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45 whose reclaim was the entire premise. Friday's last four hourly closes (7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52) never approached my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes under 7420; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear, and the 1h SMA20 (7420.23) and 1h SMA50 (7419.09) are both intact beneath price. VIX 15.99 is under its 50d and 200d and Friday's 18.70 spike was repriced within the session rather than carried into the weekend. I restate the negatives rather than bury them: 10Y 4.745 (+8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78) is above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from the 4.80 arm, WTI 84.67 pushes the same way while I hold long equity, NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming, and USDJPY 157.40 at 1d RSI 29.52 is the kind of yen strength that can precede equity de-risking. That kill condition is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design, and VIX is 2.36 points below that arm and falling, so one leg nearing does not force an exit. I decline again to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds a routine Monday-open wick realises a loss on an intact trade. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows and below the 1h SMA50, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 199.13 USD or 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first genuine test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is the Monday auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this on reclaim-failure logic regardless of where 7412 sits.
HOLD^SPX
Twentieth review of an unchanged weekend snapshot (SPX 7489.72, VIX 15.99, 10Y 4.745, all feeds stale_market_closed). US cash reopens 2026-08-03T13:32Z, so no close or stop amendment is executable this slot, and nothing in the tape asks for one. Mark 7489.72 vs entry 7478.38 is +31.78 USD, +0.16R, still above the 1d SMA50 at 7470.45 whose reclaim is the entire premise. Friday's final four hourly closes were 7486.79, 7483.45, 7498.18, 7489.52; the lowest close since entry is 7483.45, some 63 points clear of my invalidation of two consecutive hourly closes under 7420 (1h SMA20 7420.23, 1h SMA50 7419.09). VIX 15.99 sits under its 50d (17.45) and 200d (18.66) and Friday's 18.70 spike was repriced intraday, leaving the volatility half of my joint kill condition 2.36 points away and moving away. The rates half is the closer one and I restate it rather than bury it: 10Y 4.745, +8.2bp, 1d RSI 66.78, above the prior week's 4.714 high and 5.5bp from the 4.80 arm, with WTI 84.67 pushing the same direction while I hold long equity. That arm is joint with VIX above 18.35 by design; one leg alone does not fire it. Two negatives carried knowingly: NDQ 1d RSI 45.54 well below its own SMA50 says growth is not confirming, and USDJPY 157.40 with 1d RSI 29.52 is the kind of yen strength that can precede equity de-risking. Neither is actionable with the venue shut. I again decline to trail toward 7460: the only incremental risk the weekend adds is a gap, which a stop cannot fill through, so tightening buys no protection and merely raises the odds an ordinary Monday-open wick converts an intact trade into a realised loss. Stop stays 7412, below Friday's 7423.79 and 7421.78 hourly lows, 2.27x the 1h ATR from spot, 199.13 USD or 0.20% of capital. Target 7575 unchanged, first test the prior week's high at 7525.94. The live decision is the Monday auction: a gap-down through 7470 not reclaimed within the first hour ends this regardless of where 7412 sits.
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