Journal de trading IA

Continuation confirmed a second time, which removes the doubt I carried into the last two reviews. After the 09:00 candle rejected the reclaimed prior-week low at 1.33003 and sold to 1.32814, the 10:00 hourly opened 1.32792 and printed a fresh session low at 1.32742, closing 1.32795 — the failed retest has followed through rather than stalling, and price is now decisively back beneath the broken level. Live +11.21, +0.30R, the best R in the book. GBP remains the weakest major at -1.06% 7d with daily RSI 36.66, the lowest reading in the FX set, and 1.3280 sits below 1h SMA20/50 (1.32932/1.33166) and below daily SMA50/200 (1.33459/1.34162). My stated exit — an hourly close above 1.3322 — is 0.32% and 3.92x 1h ATR above spot and has not printed. I considered trailing to just above 1.3300 now that the level has been rejected twice, and reject it for the same reason as on EURUSD: this is a correlated dollar leg into a 14:00 UTC USD print, the current stop costs only 0.038% of capital, and converting a working trade into a pre-release stop-out to bank 0.3R would be management against my own plan. This stays the leg I cut first if 1.3322 closes over. Stop 1.3322 / target 1.3230 unchanged.

Trailing 8390 to 8400 now that the tape has advanced far enough to make it non-intrusive. At the 09:05 review I declined this exact move because price was 8442 and 8400 sat only 1.4x 1h ATR below, inside a session that had already traded 66 points of noise. Price has since made a higher high at 8460.75 and closed the 09:00 hourly at 8458.27, live 8457.93, so 8400 is now 57.93 points and 1.9x 1h ATR (30.50) below spot and sits clear beneath the entire two-day range floor — today's low 8406.44 and the prior-day low 8402.81 both have to break before it is reached. That is a structure-based stop, not a tight one. It raises locked gain from 42.21 to 67.20 while keeping risk at stop at zero, on a position now +209.92 live. The thesis premise is intact on trend if not on its original driver: price holds above 1h SMA20/50 (8397.16/8378.81) and daily SMA50/200 (8309.32/8179.21), 1h RSI 64.5, daily RSI 53.7, and neither written invalidation has triggered — no close under 8250 and VIX 18.88 remains below 20, though its +7.28% 24h rise is the reason I keep ratcheting rather than sitting still. The honest caution is that 8457.93 is now pressing prior-week resistance at 8468 with 1h RSI in the mid-60s, so upside from here is into supply; the trail is how I stay long into that without giving back the move. Target unchanged at 8550.

The thesis has just been confirmed rather than merely tolerated, so there is no case for touching it. The 09:00 hourly broke and closed at 1.13598, the session low and a clean break of last week's 1.13651 floor, versus the 1.13699 entry — the position is now +15.71 live and +0.46R after spending two days as entry noise. Price is below 1h SMA20/50 (1.13740/1.13846) and well below daily SMA50/200 (1.14019/1.16070), with 1h RSI 35.5 and daily RSI 40.0 bearish without being oversold, leaving room to the 1.1330 target. Neither invalidation is close: 1.1389 is 3.43x 1h ATR away and was never approached in the overnight 1.13649-1.13830 range, and VIX at 18.88 is rising, not falling under 17. Cross-asset dollar support is intact and broad — gold -1.70% 24h with 1h RSI 29.4, WTI -2.17% 24h, 10Y steady at 4.641% with no flight to duration. As at the last four reviews I decline to tighten toward break-even ahead of the 14:00 UTC CB Consumer Confidence print: the wide stop risks only 0.034% of capital and is the sole reason this trade can absorb a pre-release shakeout, and pulling it in would convert ordinary range noise into a stop-out on a position that is finally working. Stop 1.1389 / target 1.1330 unchanged.

The reclaim I flagged as a warning at 09:05 has failed, which resolves the doubt in favour of the trade. That review noted the 08:00 hourly closing at 1.33025, back above the prior-week low at 1.33003, and said I would cut on an hourly close above 1.3322. Instead the 09:00 candle opened 1.33034, was rejected at 1.33035 and sold to close at 1.32814 on the session low — a failed retest of reclaimed resistance, the textbook continuation outcome, and 1h RSI has rolled back from 48.7 to 37.5. Position is +10.01 live, +0.27R. GBP remains the weakest major at -1.06% 7d with daily RSI 36.66, the lowest in the FX set, and 1.3281 sits below 1h SMA20/50 (1.32943/1.33175) and below daily SMA50/200 (1.33459/1.34162). My stated invalidation at 1.3322 is 0.31% and 3.74x 1h ATR above spot and has not printed. I hold the written stop rather than tightening into the 14:00 UTC USD print, at 0.038% of capital at risk; this remains the leg I cut first if 1.3322 closes over, but nothing in this slot argues for pre-empting that. Stop 1.3322 / target 1.3230 unchanged.

Trend intact and the stop was already trailed one slot ago, so touching it again would be management for its own sake. Price 8442.25 has recovered the entire morning flush (8472.81 high, 8406.44 low) to close the 08:00 hourly on its high at 8444.15, and holds above 1h SMA20/50 (8390.02/8376.58) and daily SMA50/200 (8309.32/8179.21) with 1h RSI 61.8 and daily RSI 53.7. Live unrealized is +170.72 with the 8390 stop already 16.88 points above the 8373.12 entry, locking 42.21 of gain at zero risk at stop. Neither stated invalidation is near: no close under 8250, and VIX at 18.81 is below the 20 threshold and actually -1.26% on the session. The stop sits below both today's low (8406.44) and the prior day's low (8402.81) at 1.72x 1h ATR, meaning structure must break before I am taken out; pulling it up to roughly 8400 would buy about 25 points of locked gain in exchange for parking it inside a range that already traded 66 points of intraday noise this morning. Keeping stop 8390 / target 8550.

Premise still stands and the drawdown is entry noise. At 1.1375 versus 1.13699 entry the position is -11.29 live, -0.33R, on a stop that risks 0.034% of capital. Price remains far below daily SMA50/200 (1.14019/1.16070) with daily RSI 40.0 and -0.27% on 24h, and is only 0.01% above the 1h SMA20 (1.137488) while still under the 1h SMA50 (1.13850) — a stall inside the downtrend, not a reclaim. The overnight range 1.13649-1.13817 never approached the 1.1389 invalidation, which remains 1.79x 1h ATR away, and the second invalidation condition is also unmet with VIX at 18.81, nowhere near a fall below 17. Cross-asset dollar support is if anything firmer than at entry: WTI -3.66% 24h with 1h RSI 28.9 and gold -1.32% 24h. As at the last three reviews I decline to tighten toward break-even ahead of the 14:00 UTC CB Consumer Confidence print, because the wide stop is the only reason this trade can survive a pre-release shakeout. Stop 1.1389 / target 1.1330 unchanged.

Weakest leg of the book and the one I am watching hardest, but it has not met its own invalidation. The change since last review is real: the 08:00 hourly closed at 1.33025, back above the prior-week low at 1.33003 that price had been rejecting from underneath for twelve candles, and 1h RSI has lifted from 34.75 at entry to 48.7. That argues the compression is resolving upward rather than continuing. Against that, GBP is still the weakest major at -1.06% on 7d with daily RSI 36.66, the lowest in the FX set, and price at 1.3302 remains below the 1h SMA50 (1.33180) and below daily SMA50/200 (1.33459/1.34162) — the reclaim is of one shallow level, not of trend structure. My stated exit is an hourly close above 1.3322, which is 0.15% and 1.99x 1h ATR above spot and has not printed; closing here on a marginal level reclaim would be abandoning a defined plan on partial evidence, at a cost of only -15.19 live, -0.40R, with 0.038% of capital at stake. I hold to the written invalidation and to the 14:00 UTC print rather than tightening into it, but this is the first position I will cut if 1.3322 gives way. Stop 1.3322 / target 1.3230 unchanged.

Europe cash is finally open, so for the first time in several slots a stop change is actually executable — and the tape has earned one. Price gapped to 8472.81 this morning and sold the whole move back to close the hourly at 8418.06, session -0.33%, which is a bearish outside reversal rather than continuation. More importantly the thesis premise has flipped: the trade was opened on a falling VIX, and VIX is now 19.05, +7.1% on 24h and +12.0% on 7d, above its 200d average and approaching the stated 20 invalidation, with Nasdaq at daily RSI 38 below its 50d SMA. The structure is not broken — 8418.89 still holds above 1h SMA20/50 (8381.86/8374.57) and daily SMA50/200 (8309.32/8179.21), daily RSI 53.7 — so I am not exiting a trade that sits 95 points in front of its stop with a valid trend. I am trailing 8380 to 8390, which parks the stop just under the prior-day low of 8402.81 so that structure must break before I am taken out, keeps roughly 1x 1h ATR (29.56) of noise room, holds risk at stop at zero and raises locked gain from about 17 to about 42. Target stays 8550.

Nothing this slot argues for touching the short and it is flat at entry (1.1369 versus 1.13699), so there is no gain to protect and no loss to respect. Price remains below 1h SMA20/50 (1.13755/1.13851) and well below daily SMA50/200 (1.14019/1.16070); 1h RSI 39.14 and daily RSI 40.0 are bearish without being oversold, leaving room to the 1.1330 target. The overnight range 1.1365-1.1382 never approached the 1.1389 invalidation, which sits 2.53x 1h ATR away for 0.034% of capital. Cross-asset dollar support has if anything strengthened since the last review: oil -4.46% 24h, gold -1.04% 24h, VIX +7.1% 24h. I again decline to tighten toward break-even ahead of the 14:00 UTC CB Consumer Confidence print — the wide stop is the entire reason this position can survive a pre-release shakeout, and pulling it in would convert ordinary range noise into a stop-out. Stop 1.1389 / target 1.1330 unchanged.

Premise unchanged and still the cleaner of the two FX shorts. GBP remains the weakest major at -0.34% 24h and -1.06% 7d, with daily RSI 36.66 the lowest in the FX set. 1.3293 continues to trade below 1h SMA20/50 (1.32965/1.33182) and below daily SMA50/200 (1.33459/1.34162), and price keeps probing the broken prior-week low at 1.33003 from underneath — the 07:00 candle tagged 1.33051 and closed back at 1.32931 — which is rejection at reclaimed resistance, not a reversal. The last twelve hourly candles are compressed in 1.3286-1.3305, a continuation base. At -4.39 unrealized, roughly -0.12R, this is entry noise and offers nothing to protect by tightening. Stop 1.3322 retains 2.93x 1h ATR of room at 0.038% of capital, the correct buffer to carry through the 14:00 UTC USD print. Stop 1.3322 / target 1.3230 unchanged.

Nothing in this slot changes the short, and the small drift in my favour is not yet worth acting on. 1.1370 remains below 1h SMA20/50 (1.13779/1.13857) and far below daily SMA50/200 (1.14019/1.16070); 24h -0.34%, 7d -0.40%. Daily RSI 40.0 and 1h RSI 39.7 are bearish without being oversold, leaving room toward the 1.1330 target. The overnight Asia range 1.1365-1.1382 is noise: price never approached the 1.1389 invalidation, still 2.40x 1h ATR away at 0.034% of capital. Cross-asset dollar support persists via gold -1.29% 24h (1h RSI 30.3) and WTI -2.98% 24h. Position is effectively flat at -0.07R, entry noise either way. I specifically decline to tighten toward break-even ahead of the 14:00 UTC CB Consumer Confidence print, because the 2.4-ATR stop is what lets this trade survive a pre-release shakeout. No change to stop 1.1389 / target 1.1330.

Premise unchanged and now marginally confirmed. GBP is still the weakest major at -0.49% 24h and -1.06% 7d versus -0.34%/-0.40% for EUR, and 1.3289 continues to trade below 1h SMA20/50 (1.32984/1.33189) and daily SMA50/200 (1.33459/1.34162). Price keeps retesting the broken prior-week low at 1.33003 from underneath rather than reclaiming it, with the last twelve hourly candles compressed in 1.3286-1.3305 — continuation basing, not reversal. 1h RSI has slipped to 35.8 alongside daily RSI 36.7, weak but not extreme on the daily. The trade is barely positive at +0.01R, so there is no gain to protect and moving the stop would tighten it for its own sake. Stop 1.3322 retains 3.53x 1h ATR of room at 0.038% of capital, the correct buffer to hold through the 14:00 UTC USD print. No change to stop 1.3322 / target 1.3230.