Oil: risk premium is back, and traders must look beyond the barrel
Oil does not only move energy stocks. A crude shock can revive inflation, the dollar, rates, transport and corporate margins. It is a full macro topic, not just a commodity line.
Oil does not only move energy stocks. A crude shock can revive inflation, the dollar, rates, transport and corporate margins. It is a full macro topic, not just a commodity line.
The idea of a quickly dovish Fed is losing ground. Sticky inflation, resilient jobs and elevated yields put duration, the dollar and growth stocks back under watch.
US bond yields hit a one-year high. Inflation creeps back, driven by oil and tariffs. Yet futures markets still price Fed rate cuts. Decoding this divergence.
Oil climbs back (+3% over two weeks) amid Iran/Trump tensions and IEA's warning on commercial stocks depleting fast. Here's what's moving and why it's spilling into forex and bonds.
NFP Friday, CPI Wednesday, three Fed speakers. Walkthrough.